Every home buying process starts not with a property, but a location. Most people have a very specific idea of what area they want to buy in, and even if they don’t, a market analysis is vital to knowing if you can find what you’re looking for in any given market.
Lost Creek is currently an extremely competitive market, and that’s during a time when many markets–from Chicago to Portland, and even some areas in Austin–are seeing a slowdown. But not here. Lost Creek homes generally get multiple offers and waived contingencies. Waiving contingencies is something that only happens when sellers have lots of power, since contingencies are conditions that the buyer puts on the sale, such as closing on a certain date, replacing an item or system, or making a repair.
Homes in this market generally sell at or just below list price, and go to pending around 34 days on the market. That’s pretty quick!
The average price in this market can vary a little more than in other markets, simply because it’s a smaller geographical area and there aren’t that many homes on the market. For example, right now, at this time in January 2018, I see 9 properties listed for sale. At the end of December, there were just 5. RedFin ranks this market 71 out of 100 for competitiveness (with 100 being the highest) based on home sales over the past 6 months.
The 2018 Real Estate Market at a Glance
Lost Creek saw 68 closed home sales in 2018, which is a little higher than average, and just slightly below 2017’s pace. What was unusual, in a good way, is how quickly those homes sold, averaging just 33 days as compared to 55 days in 2017, and 63 days in 2016. The median number of days to sell was even faster, at just 12 days in 2018.
We also saw a nice uptick in values with both average and median prices rising around 6 percent. In 2018, Lost Creek set a record for the number of home sales exceeding $1 million, with five homes sold in that range. But with an average sales price of $738, there’s still plenty of room for appreciation for most properties.
What Lies Ahead?
Great question! Some of you may be aware that the Marshall Tract (the pasture on the right side of Lost Creek Blvd as you’re driving in from 360) is currently under contract with a residential developer who has initial plans for 63 new single-family homes. My guess is that these homes will come to market at prices above $1 million. While the development is still in the site-planning stage, I anticipate we could begin to see new homes coming online by spring of 2020.
Those homes shouldn’t be competition for most Lost Creek sellers. However, I can see the potential for these new homes to put some amount of pricing pressure on the high-end resale inventory in Lost Creek, and that could be the case for some time. I’ll be keeping a close eye on that.
About Claude Smith
A former accountant and financial advisor, Claude’s property analysis always gets his clients the maximum value. His customer service, community involvement, and acts of generosity are literally legendary within his client base and neighborhood.